Case Studies

Let's look at some example of triple threat companies and the qualities they exhibit. As investors, the goal here is to be able to learn from success stories and apply the wisdom to future investments - hopefully enabling us to spot the signs of a potential winner and the dangers of a potential dud early.

Note - much of our analysis in these case studies focuses on the threat categories listed here. We focus on this because as much as we can speculate on the likelihood of an asset to one day 10x the value of the company, this is highly risky to rely on alone. As such, it would be wise to start off with the non-asset based threats to gauge whether management has the alignment and skills to deliver the right outcome. I am a firm believer that bad management can spoil even the best asset/business, while quality governance can extract the best outcome from a bad starting position.

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Race Oncology (ASX:RAC) has been one of those stocks that has heavily outperformed the market during its golden years of 2019-2022. During this period their stock price went from ~$0.09 to above $3.00 per share, equating to a $450m market capitalisation for what is a relatively early stage biotechnology company.

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Hartshead Resources (ASX:HHR) is a emerging UK North Sea gas producer. The company has achieved significant progress since vending in the projects, including a $196.3m farmout deal with Rockrose Energy in early 2023.

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Logo - Tivan Limited
Tivan Limited (ASX:TVN) is a vanadium mine developer that recently underwent a board refresh under now Executive Chairman Grant Wilson. Throughout this period, the company also renewed several members of the management team, acquired another large vanadium project from King River Resources and reset the development strategy.

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Atlantic Lithium Limited (ASX:A11) is a very new entrant to the ASX, having listed in late 2022 and focused on developing Ghana's first lithium mine. The company currently has a partnership agreement with Piedmont Lithium and has moved quickly on project progression. Yet, Atlantic came under the scrutiny of a short seller report in early 2023 which questions their practices in Ghana.

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Altech Batteries Limited (ASX:ATC) is one of the few battery technology companies on the ASX. The company is currently developing a sodium alumina battery technology in Germany under JV with Fraunhofer IKTS. The technology is targeting the grid energy storage market. In addition, Altech is advancing a HPA processing operation in Malaysia.

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Imugene Limited (ASX:IMU) is a biotech company advancing 5 oncology technologies all aimed at eliminating tumours. The company has enjoyed strong progress and has found strong backing by investors willing to fund this expensive journey. Yet the market has not been kind to high cash burn R&D companies across the last 12 months and Imugene is no less immune to this dynamic.

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Nuix is a software company offering investigative analytics and intelligence software for extracting knowledge from unstructured data. This offering predominately helps enterprise customers who possess large quantities of data that traditionally is not in a format that can be used. The company was originally spun out of Macquarie and has undergone several investigations for questionable disclosure. Despite these challenges, the company has grown the financials strongly and demonstrated success at the product level concurrently.

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Lindian Resources is a rare earths exploration company advancing the Kangunkande asset in Malawi. Due to the jurisdiction, the company may not be for everyone, yet those who have invested 24 months ago have enjoyed over 10x returns. The company has recently paid the final tranche of funds to acquire 100% of the project and is currently moving the asset forward to development-ready status.

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Core Lithium is the latest Australia company to complete a lithium mine and ship their first product. The company currently operates the Finniss lithium project in the Northern Territory and recently announced their first full year profit.

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Sayona Mining is a pure play lithium miner focused on several Canadian assets. The company acquired the North American Lithium assets in joint venture with Piedmont Lithium Ltd in 2021 and successfully recommended production in early 2023. In addition to existing production, the company is investigating downstream operations to produce lithium chemicals.

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Immuron is a biotechnology company using unique technology based on bovine colostrum (the first milk of cows after calving) combined with targeted oral polyclonal antibodies to produce treatments for gut diseases. The company is currently selling two products - Travellan and Protectyn - while advancing four clinical trials. The company has received funding and interest from the US government and DoD for military applications of the product.

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Red Sky Energy's new chapter started with the appointment of the new managing director, Andrew Knox, in mid-2018. Since then, the company has acquired two oil and gas projects in South Australia, introduced Santos as a joint venture partner, and achieved great success in enhancing the value of the projects. The company expects to book its first revenue at the Santos JV this quarter and commence productions at it's wholly owned project in the near future

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